Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

resumen

Resumen
Global climate change will probably exacerbate crop losses from insect pests, reducing agricultural production, and threatening food security. To predict where crop losses will occur, scientists have mainly used correlative models of species’ distributions, but such models are unreliable when extrapolated to future environments. To minimize extrapolation, we developed mechanistic and hybrid models that explicitly capture range-limiting processes, and we [ver mas...]
dc.contributor.authorYoungblood, Jacob P.
dc.contributor.authorCease, Arianne J.
dc.contributor.authorTalal, Stav
dc.contributor.authorMedina, Héctor e.
dc.contributor.authorRojas, Julio E.
dc.contributor.authorTrumper, Eduardo Victor
dc.contributor.authorAngilletta Jr, Michael J.
dc.contributor.authorHarrison, Jon F.
dc.contributor.authorCopa Bazán, Fernando
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-28T10:58:28Z
dc.date.available2024-05-28T10:58:28Z
dc.date.issued2022-07-01
dc.identifier.issn1557-7015 (Online)
dc.identifier.issn0012-9615 (Print)
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1550
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/17923
dc.identifier.urihttps://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1550
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate change will probably exacerbate crop losses from insect pests, reducing agricultural production, and threatening food security. To predict where crop losses will occur, scientists have mainly used correlative models of species’ distributions, but such models are unreliable when extrapolated to future environments. To minimize extrapolation, we developed mechanistic and hybrid models that explicitly capture range-limiting processes, and we explored how incorporating mechanisms altered the projected impacts of climate change for an agricultural pest, the South American locust (Schistocerca cancellata). Because locusts are generalist herbivores surrounded by food, their population growth may be limited by thermal effects on digestion more than food availability. To incorporate this mechanism into a distribution model, we measured the thermal effects on the consumption and defecation of field-captured locusts and used these data to model energy gain in current and future climates. We then created hybrid models by using outputs of the mechanistic model as predictor variables in correlative models, estimating the potential distribution of gregarious outbreaking locusts based on multiple predictor sets, modeling algorithms, and climate scenarios. Based on the mechanistic model, locusts can assimilate relatively high amounts of energy throughout temperate and tropical South America; however, correlative and hybrid modeling revealed that most tropical areas are unsuitable for locusts. When estimating current distributions, the top-ranked model was always the one fit with mechanistic predictors (i.e., the hybrid model). When projected to future climates, top-ranked hybrid models projected range expansions that were 23%–30% points smaller than those projected by correlative models. Therefore, a combination of the correlative and mechanistic approaches bracketed the potential outcomes of climate change and enhanced confidence where model projections agreed. Because all models projected a poleward range expansionunder climate change, agriculturists should consider enhanced monitoring and the management of locusts near the southern margin of the range.eng
dc.formatapplication/pdfes_AR
dc.language.isoenges_AR
dc.publisherWileyes_AR
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccesses_AR
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/es_AR
dc.sourceEcological Monographs 93 (1) : e1550. (February 2023)es_AR
dc.subjectHybridseng
dc.subjectHíbridoses_AR
dc.subjectPest Insectseng
dc.subjectInsectos Dañinoses_AR
dc.subjectLangosta (orthoptera)es_AR
dc.subjectLocustseng
dc.subjectSchistocerca gregariaes_AR
dc.subjectCultivos
dc.subjectCropseng
dc.subjectPérdidas de la Cosecha
dc.subjectCrop Losseseng
dc.subject.otherSpecies Distribution Modeleng
dc.subject.otherModelo de Distribución de Especieses_AR
dc.subject.otherThermal Physiologyeng
dc.subject.otherFisiología Térmicaes_AR
dc.subject.otherLangosta gregariaes_AR
dc.titleClimate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locustses_AR
dc.typeinfo:ar-repo/semantics/artículoes_AR
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_AR
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiones_AR
dc.rights.licenseCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)es_AR
dc.description.origenEEA Manfredies_AR
dc.description.filFil: Youngblood, Jacob P. Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidoses_AR
dc.description.filFil: Cease, A.J. Arizona State University. School of Sustainability; Estados Unidoses_AR
dc.description.filFil: Talal, Stav. Arizona State University. School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidoses_AR
dc.description.filFil: Medina, Héctor. Servicio Nacional de Sanidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria (SENASA); Argentinaes_AR
dc.description.filFil: Rojas, Julio E. SENAVE. Departamento de Campañas Fitosanitarias. Dirección de Protección Vegetal; Paraguayes_AR
dc.description.filFil: Trumper, Eduardo V. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Manfredi; Argentinaes_AR
dc.description.filFil: Angilletta Jr, Michael J. Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidoses_AR
dc.description.filFil: Harrison, Jon. Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences; Estados Unidoses_AR
dc.description.filFil: Copa Bazán, Fernando. Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno; Boliviaes_AR
dc.subtypecientifico


Ficheros en el ítem

Thumbnail

Este ítem aparece en la(s) siguiente(s) colección(ones)

common

Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
Excepto si se señala otra cosa, la licencia del ítem se describe como info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess