Descripción y modelización de la dinámica del uso de la tierra en la cuenca hidrológica de Mar Chiquita

Abstract

Los procesos de cambio de uso de la tierra fueron estudiados en la Cuenca de Mar Chiquita (14.822 km2, Bs. As.), mediante un análisis multitemporal (1978-2005) con sensores remotos, evidenciándose un importante avance de la cobertura cultivo y pasturas sembradas, y una pérdida significativa de vegetación espontánea. La trayectoria esperada del uso de la tierra bajo un escenario agrícola (1997-2022; Dyna-CLUE), valido el patrón actual de dinámica del uso de la tierra. Por otro lado, los escenarios ganadero y conservacionista mantienen un equilibrio de distribución de las coberturas de la tierra. Esta es una herramienta útil para el planeamiento del uso de la tierra.

In Argentina, the increased pressure used on natural resources has been done by the agriculture expansion, showing the need for integrated studies on land use change over an agro-environmental view. Mar Chiquita Basin (14.822 km2) is considered an appropriate model for this type of study, as it presents different set of pampa`s agroecological environments. This history study was performed by satellite studies of eleven agricultural campaigns between 1978 and 2006. In this period, crops increased by 57%, sown pasture by 47% and spontaneous vegetation (natural grasslands specially) decreased by 53%. The crop´s expamsion was influenced by land´s productivity, flood risk, road and cities distance. Also, a dynamic simulation model (Dyna-CLUE) was used for forecasting the land use change up to 2021/2022 under three scenarios (agricultural, livestock and conservationist). The dynamic simulation model under an agricultural scenario to 2021 forecasted showed the following coverage: crop 43%, the sown pasture a 30% and spontaneous vegetation 16%. Livestock and conservationists scenarios showed similar results, with an equal distribution of this coverage (crop 33%, sown pasture 28% and spontaneous vegetation 28%). In the simulated trajectories, the geomorphic environment, soil aptitude and flooding risk have influenced in the agricultural used change. Although, the model fiability was moderated (42%) but it reflected the coverage spatial patterns and this tools usefulness was showed in scenario´s setting for land used management.