Parameter estimation and selection efficiency under Bayesian and frequentist approaches in peach trials

Abstract

Identification of stable and high-yielding genotypes is a real challenge in peach breeding, since genotype-by-environment interaction (GE) masks the performance of the materials. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effectiveness of parameter estimation and genotype selection solving the linear mixed models (LMM) under frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Fruit yield of 308 peach genotypes were assessed under different seasons and replication numbers arranged in a completely randomized design. Under the frequentist framework the restricted maximum likelihood method to estimate variance component and genotypic prediction was used. Different models considering environment, genotype and GE effects according to the likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criteria were compared. In the Bayesian approach, the mean and the variance components were assumed to be random variables having a priori non-informative distributions with known parameters. According the deviance information criteria the most suitable Bayesian model was selected. The full model was the most appropriate to calculate parameters and genotypic predictions, which were very similar in both approaches. Due to imbalance data, Cullis’s method was the most appropriate to estimate heritability. It was calculated at 0.80, and selecting above 5% of the genotypes, the realized gain of 14.80 kg tree1 was attained. Genotypic frequentist and Bayesian predictions showed a positive correlation (r = 0.9991; P = 0.0001). Since the Bayesian method incorporates the credible interval for genetic parameters, genotypic Bayesian prediction would be a more useful tool than the frequentist approach and allowed the selection of 17 high-yielding and stable genotypes.